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Author Topic: Covid 19  (Read 79 times)
JoeC
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« on: March 26, 2020, 12:33:29 PM »

Everyone well? Anyone been tested for the virus?

Hope this virus doesn't mirror the 1918 pandemic which featured three "waves." An initial lighter outbreak in the Spring of 1918, followed by a unbelievably horrific "second wave" in the Fall of the same year. October 1918 was the single worst month. A less-bad "third wave" followed in Jan/Feb of 1919.

Unlike now, it mainly affected people under 65 and killed loads of young/middle-aged people. Because of the heavy loss of life in WWI, newspapers in America, the UK, France and Germany withheld flu casualty numbers at the time, feeling that the WWI carnage was much too recent in peoples' minds.

Be interesting to know what measures, if any, were instituted for the populace. I know, in 1957, the "Asian Flu" was taken in stride. I was starting the 9th grade in Rockland County, NY and I remember school was not closed down, although absentee rates were very visible in all the classes. I got that flu (along with probably more than half the school) but was not treated for it in any special way. Might have missed a couple days max.

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jp05
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2020, 07:50:09 PM »

Joe C

Timely topic. I live in FL and have had no problems, no medical visits, etc. Two weeks ago, the state closed bars, left restaurants (those where food sales was larger than alcohol) open at 50% of capacity. Then, last Thursday, they closed all restaurants except for delivery or to-go. Many retailers are closed, but by choice - or lack of business - since the state had said to stay home.

I have a small office with one employee here in Ft. Myers, but it is open and we live by the 6' rule when I'm there. Same thing for my business in MA, with 5 employees. We are officially considered an exempt business siince we distribute IT products to the state, schools, hospitals, etc. So it is legal to be open.

The roads have very little traffic all day. I'm thinking it might be another 2 or 3 weeks in this situation.

My personal opinion is that the results of the testing is being misrepresented. The percent of tests that result in confirmed virus is around 10%. However, each test has been done on an already screened person who showed some symptoms. The total number of tests is rarely revealed. So the impact on the whole population can't be easily or accurately extrapolated and the "death rate" of a few percent is only of those who have been tested. The death percentage of the total population would seemingly be a small fraction of the published death rate.

This does not mean the virus isn't an important problem, only that the odds of overcoming it is probably similar to other viruses.

I hope everyone is healthy and staying busy, and following the social separation recommendations.

JP
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bklynmike101
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2020, 11:50:18 AM »

Joe,

So far so good here in LA. Definitely concerned though. I have vague memories of the "Hong Kong flu", the "Asian flu", H1N1, and maybe a few others that hit us here in he US but nothing was ever like this. I've gone back and forth between wondering how much we're seeing today reflects the now prevalent 24 hour news cycle and social media vs. how much is "real". As of a few weeks back, however, I've come ti the conclusion that this is indeed a major event and extremely dangerous, especially for those above a certain age and/or with other underlying conditions. I had a great aunt, aged about 39, who fell victim to the Spanish flu in 1918. That epidemic's victim profile was very different that that of Covid-19. LA is pretty much shut down, with maybe 20% of traffic and commercial activity.   

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JoeC
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« Reply #3 on: March 28, 2020, 11:17:51 AM »

Mike, keeping my fingers crossed for the greater LA area as my son and his family are in Westlake Village.

As I said, I was just starting high school when the Asian Flu hit in the Fall of 1957. As many people as it affected, I doubt Pres. Eisenhower or Governor Harriman ever seriously considered shutting schools and businesses down. I don't think public health policy in those days saw a benefit or need. And, as you mentioned, the TV coverage was a faint echo compared to what exists today.

Like you, I don't recall the '57 outbreak with anywhere near the seriousness of what we're in now -- more like just a widespread, "normal" flu epidemic. I do know that it was VERY widespread and that half of the students in my classes seemed to be out sick at any given time that Fall/Winter.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 02:42:36 PM by JoeC » Logged
bklynmike101
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« Reply #4 on: March 28, 2020, 12:52:21 PM »

Joe,

Good luck to you and yours, including your Westlake family. And good luck to all others on this board as well wherever they are around the globe.

I was too young to remember too much about 1957, but for sure there's never been anything like this in our lifetimes. The absence of traffic and activity around LA is astounding. Similar images from all over the US and world, especially my home town - NYC.
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krobi
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« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2020, 10:37:37 AM »

Joe,

in Germany we have a difficult situation.

The number of infected and ill people is increasing; growing deceases.

I work from home for two weeks now. My wife and I avoid to leave our apartment.

Good luck to all on this board - stay welll and healthy!

krobi

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Robb_K
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« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2020, 12:10:36 AM »

Joe,

in Germany we have a difficult situation.

The number of infected and ill people is increasing; growing deceases.

I work from home for two weeks now. My wife and I avoid to leave our apartment.

Good luck to all on this board - stay welll and healthy!

krobi

Yes, good luck and health to everyone.  I was in Los Angeles visiting my sister when the virus hit Germany, and so my scheduled trip back to The Netherlands was cancelled.  I will be lucky to return to Europe by July.  Normally, I spend August -early October in Munich, Germany, after several months in The Netherlands and Denmark.  This year, I also have seminars to teach in Denmark and Norway In June and July.  Everything is on hold.  But, being in the 75+ age group, and fully half the population of California expected to contract the Covid-19 virus, I just hope I come out of the next few months alive, and without severe lung damage that would have me chained to an oxygen machine for the rest of my life.  I hope the same for all of us, most of whom are 70+ years of age.  Currently there is an extreme shortage of ventilator/respirators related to what the experts predict they will need in California hospitals.  We will see in the coming days how the nations will respond to this dire situation.
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krobi
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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2020, 06:53:23 AM »

Joe,

in Germany we have a difficult situation.

The number of infected and ill people is increasing; growing deceases.

I work from home for two weeks now. My wife and I avoid to leave our apartment.

Good luck to all on this board - stay welll and healthy!

krobi

Yes, good luck and health to everyone.  I was in Los Angeles visiting my sister when the virus hit Germany, and so my scheduled trip back to The Netherlands was cancelled.  I will be lucky to return to Europe by July.  Normally, I spend August -early October in Munich, Germany, after several months in The Netherlands and Denmark.  This year, I also have seminars to teach in Denmark and Norway In June and July.  Everything is on hold.  But, being in the 75+ age group, and fully half the population of California expected to contract the Covid-19 virus, I just hope I come out of the next few months alive, and without severe lung damage that would have me chained to an oxygen machine for the rest of my life.  I hope the same for all of us, most of whom are 70+ years of age.  Currently there is an extreme shortage of ventilator/respirators related to what the experts predict they will need in California hospitals.  We will see in the coming days how the nations will respond to this dire situation.

Take care and stay healthy Robb!

krobi
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bklynmike101
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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2020, 10:44:40 AM »

Robb,

Glad to hear you're doing OK. I'd been thinking we have not heard from you in some time but remembered as well that you had 'dark periods' in which you don't post given your many travels. Crazy times!
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Robb_K
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Hopeless Nostalgist


« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2020, 12:19:51 PM »

Robb,

Glad to hear you're doing OK. I'd been thinking we have not heard from you in some time but remembered as well that you had 'dark periods' in which you don't post given your many travels. Crazy times!
I'm stuck in L.A.  So, we're fairly close.  It otherwise would have been a time we could have met in person.  But we're both in the high-risk group, so it wouldn't be a good idea.  We've got about 2 and a half to 3 months of non-perishable food stocked up, and get perishable food (greens, eggs and the like) delivered from a farm once a week,  so we can avoid leaving the house during the virus peak in April and May.  There may be a window between the tapering off in California, and the 2nd wave of the virus hitting Europe.  If so, I might risk the airport, airplane trip, and public tram]nsport, to return to The Netherlands in July.  But I hope everything goes much better than expected before then, so I won't feel that I'm risking my life by doing that, when the time comes.

Being housebound for 4 months (despite bringing my work with me) gives me plenty of time to post on this forum and my Soul music, and hockey fora.  Maybe I'll make us a few more music and sports quizzes for some entertainment.

Good luck and good health to everyone!
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JoeC
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« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2020, 01:09:25 PM »

Same to you, Robb.

Links to your Soul Music, and Hockey, fora???
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jp05
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« Reply #11 on: March 30, 2020, 08:11:38 PM »

Robb,

Sorry to hear of your "detention" in CA. It's one thing to be essentially housebound (as we are in FL) and quite another to be away from "home". The Netherlands is certainly a hot spot based on the John Hopkins map, with about 11,000 confirmed cases. I'd be surprised if most of the problem isn't in Amsterdam. I have been there often (in the early 90's) and it was a popular place for tourists and students (and a very busy city in general as I recall).

We are essentially all in high risk groups for fatalities, but the odds still seem to be around 10% if you actually get the virus. So lets hope that you and the rest of us are in the 90%!

Good to see your here on the board!

Jan
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bklynmike101
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« Reply #12 on: Today at 12:27:11 AM »

So far Los Angeles and California in general are "performing" fairly well in terms of deaths per population size thanks to getting a relatively early start on social distancing. My wife and I have at least one month food and supplies on hand, possibly more. Still, we have been increasingly reducing our sorties - almost down to zero now - and are experimenting with various ways to attain (some) fresh food. Many of my walking trails have been shut down so that leaves me with the backyard (thank goodness for that) and (still open) some local walking paths.

Hoping we all get thru this unscathed.
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